Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 12.109904 13.860951 15.741245 17.906299 20.326083 22.942881 25.982365
2025-10-05 9.759322 12.192782 15.003311 18.471823 22.618456 27.397026 33.299565
2025-10-12 8.508439 11.247093 14.560564 18.831584 24.154245 30.529510 38.699651
2025-10-19 7.323913 10.200640 13.833007 18.703658 25.003996 32.813032 43.149225
2025-10-26 6.392739 9.326519 13.173035 18.511501 25.642484 34.743225 47.123151
2025-11-02 5.708957 8.691410 12.738370 18.532467 26.497866 36.930545 51.468201
2025-11-09 5.184681 8.210130 12.446991 18.687170 27.491378 39.293586 56.095681
2025-11-16 4.671852 7.685666 12.036470 18.620181 28.140426 41.184467 60.130253
2025-11-23 4.202428 7.173962 11.591334 18.451055 28.604883 42.806773 63.825456
2025-11-30 3.869524 6.836609 11.368456 18.574988 29.471525 44.999180 68.371881
2025-12-07 3.666798 6.684349 11.407773 19.081110 30.906269 48.039013 74.216511
2025-12-14 3.322336 6.264958 10.994398 18.855014 31.216141 49.442113 77.731814
2025-12-21 2.881064 5.644662 10.220183 18.021198 30.566391 49.424295 79.204141
2025-12-28 2.749502 5.551602 10.299992 18.557768 32.069353 52.683582 85.669505
2026-01-04 2.600894 5.411721 10.286141 18.930528 33.317069 55.586732 91.682306
2026-01-11 2.381018 5.118244 9.984737 18.797956 33.733585 57.211600 95.785817
2026-01-18 2.174078 4.827915 9.664360 18.606379 34.032119 58.647639 99.628369
2026-01-25 2.018077 4.620964 9.475896 18.626935 34.675508 60.642292 104.400390
2026-02-01 1.894387 4.466233 9.369939 18.782504 35.546737 63.024706 109.855041
2026-02-08 1.752416 4.259385 9.149895 18.715153 36.024086 64.773145 114.337266
2026-02-15 1.610683 4.038275 8.884866 18.545298 36.306895 66.200249 118.330624
2026-02-22 1.514727 3.906515 8.782869 18.669774 37.109049 68.511403 123.834258
2026-03-01 1.466910 3.877280 8.881608 19.178142 38.617944 72.059922 131.490125